Satisfied Addicts Underestimate Their Cravings

A forthcoming article in the Journal of Health Economics, summarized here, describes a study in which heroin addicts were asked to rate how much money they would accept in lieu of a next dose. Addicts who had just received a dose severely underestimated their cravings relative to addicts who were asked the question before receiving the dose. Researchers suggest the inability to estimate their future cravings could play a role in the decision to use addictive drugs in the first place.

The study used a small sample of adults, but the results are consistent with somewhat similar research on teens:

Prior research has not addressed this issue directly. There is some research showing that young cigarette smokers significantly underestimate their own risk of becoming addicted (Slovic, 2001). For example, one study found that only 15% of high school students who smoked less than one cigarette per day predicted they might be smoking in 5 years when in fact 43% were still smoking 5 years later (Johnston et al., 1993). And, among high-school seniors who smoke, 56% predicted that they would not be smoking 5 years later, but only 30% had in fact quit at that point (Department of Health and Humans Services; cited in Gruber, 2001). However, there are many reasons why smokers may mispredict their own future behavior other than that they underestimated the impact of drug craving.